PREPARING FOR THE FUTURE: A NEW TRANSATLANTIC AGENDA FOR THE 21ST CENTURY
Garrick Utley, President of the Levin Institute also ACG Chairman; Frank-Walter Steinmeier; Lt. Gen.Brent Scowcroft; ACG President William M.Drozdiak; Henry A. Kissinger; and Nicholas Rostow, Vice Chancellor and Counsel for SUNY (left to right).
September 24, 2008
In terms of how he sees the world, Minister Steinmeier said that we are living in a new era. The pattern of the Cold War ended with the fall of the Berlin Wall and the dissolution of the Soviet Union. There is a new balance of power developing, and we must recalibrate how we see the world and establish new criteria for doing so. Countries like China, India, and Russia are taking more prominent roles, and as they grow in economic influence, they seek greater political influence. He added that at the same time we live in an era when more international cooperation and global partnerships are required. In short, it is necessary to develop new international structures and to rethink existing ones in order to cope with the global challenges ahead. Minister Steinmeier said French President Nicolas Sarkozy may be correct in his view that we should rethink the G8 structure, but he acknowledged that this will be difficult. Despite the necessity of such initiatives, the crisis in the Caucasus – which will continue – has had significant consequences for international dialogue. For example, the G8 meeting with Russia was canceled.
At a panel discussion organized by the Levin Institute and the American Council on Germany on September 24, 2008, German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, former U.S. Secretary of State Dr. Henry A. Kissinger, and former National Security Advisor Lt. Gen. Brent Scowcroft addressed roughly 140 representatives from the New York business and policymaking communities in the Institute’s Global Classroom – as well as nearly 50 additional guests in overflow rooms – about the current and future foreign policy challenges facing the transatlantic community.
In his introduction, Garrick Utley, Chairman of the ACG and President of the Levin Institute, said that we live in “dramatic” times given the global geopolitical hotspots and the current meltdown of the global financial system. He asked the German Foreign Minister to share his thoughts about the world we live in today – and asked whether it had elements of the 19th or 20th centuries even though we are well into the first decade of the 21st. Minister Steinmeier began by saying that globalization and its repercussions are the focus of the current United Nations General Assembly. Although issues such as developments in the Third World, access to safe drinking water, and food shortages generally dominate the agenda at meetings on globalization, the current financial crisis has grabbed the attention of delegations from around the world. Minister Steinmeier said that he and his colleagues are following the debate over a rescue plan to help bail out the U.S. economy very closely. He added that the Wall Street leaders he met with earlier in the day told him that there was no alternative to the rescue plan. The hope is that the proposal by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson will be adopted and will have a positive impact on the United States and beyond.
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The Minister said that in the coming weeks and months, we must look for opportunities to promote dialogue as well as fora for discussion. He warned that if we do not do so, a kind of silence (Gesprächslosigkeit) will set in and make problems like the Caucasus intractable. In a preview of a speech he was planning to give before the UN two days later, Minister Steinmeier said this is the first century in which the problems we face – such as climate change, energy security, and resource scarcity – can be solved only in concert with others. Therefore, the proper fora are more necessary than ever before.
Turning to Dr. Kissinger, Mr. Utley asked whether the shift in the balance of power as we are experiencing it today, the rise of emerging powers, and the financial crisis are influencing America’s standing in the world. Dr. Kissinger began with two general observations. First, he said that the political and economic organization of the world is coherent. Over the past decades, the United States has argued that other countries must tighten their belts when faced with financial crises and collapsing banks. Today the global economy transcends national borders to a greater degree than ever before, yet there continue to be local and national political and economic pressures. Some might argue that the United States is currently in a situation similar to that of Latin America during its debt crisis in the early 1980s. Second, he said that the nation-state as we have known it is disintegrating – except in Asia. In Europe, he said that “the nation-state cannot ask for sacrifice, but neither can the EU.” In the 21st century, we are experiencing a different organization of regions – in which countries like China and India will seek greater influence. However, on a positive note, Dr. Kissinger said that “war as we have known it in the 19th and 20th centuries is inconceivable in the 21st century.” He agreed that the challenges ahead can be dealt with only on a global level, and mentioned climate change, energy, and weapons proliferation as areas of concern. “In both politics and economics, powers must cooperate.”
General Scowcroft said that we are at a “moment of historic discontinuity” in which the world of the Cold War has evolved into a very different post-Cold War world. The notion of sovereignty, the role of nation-states vis-à-vis their citizens, and information technology have been transformed. In short, the nature of power has changed. General Scowcroft went on to say that at the end of the Cold War, the United States had power on the world stage unparalleled by any country – except perhaps by the Roman Empire. But, this power is of little or no use to us today. Institutions which were created because of the Cold War – such as NATO and the UN – “were constructed for a world which has vanished.” He added that we must grapple with many unknown challenges which have not been seen on a global level before.
Mr. Utley steered the conversation back to the economy by asking Minister Steinmeier to what extent the financial crisis might have an impact on transatlantic relations and whether those Europeans who favor more economic regulation might have a sense of Schadenfreude. The Minister said that he did not detect any Schadenfreude, because the crisis in the United States is creating severe shockwaves in Europe. Therefore, there is a huge interest in the success of the recovery package. He did say, however, that in his conversations with Wall Street executives, he learned that the source of the crisis stemmed from areas not regulated by the market, and that there appears to be a greater willingness to regulate the market as a result.
He said that the G7 and the G8 require greater transparency and that there needs to be more of a control mechanism for products on the financial market. Minister Steinmeier said it would be important to jumpstart the discussion of market regulation on an international level. He added that while the economy might be an important election topic in the United States, he did not think the financial market per se was a key issue among voters. “Insecurity,” he said “is of key importance to voters.”
Shifting gears, Mr. Utley asked Dr. Kissinger about both the Caucasus and Russia’s relationship with the West. Dr. Kissinger said the Caucasus have been a passionate area of conflict for a long time, but noted that U.S. leaders have not taken on the task of explaining the complexities. He added that the Caucasus – and the current Georgian crisis – are not central to the relationship between Russia and the West. The Russia of today should not be confused with the Soviet Union: It has different borders and demographics, and it is a producer of energy. Dr. Kissinger said Russia is an important country but not a global threat, and in the near future a new relationship with Russia should be cultivated. General Scowcroft added that the United States and the Atlantic community never developed a strategy for dealing with the Russia which emerged following the end of the Cold War, when it was “economically and politically bankrupt.” Instead, Western policies toward Russia were a mix between the establishment of a cordon sanitaire and cooperation on energy and on coping with global hotspots. Post-Cold War Russia may have been weakened, and many Russians felt that the West took advantage of that by pushing in its borders and renouncing the ABM Treaty. General Scowcroft said we should be tolerant and patient in our dealings with Russia. Gorbachev, Yeltsin, and Putin have had very different concepts of Russia.
Minister Steinmeier said that the conflict in Georgia must be contained and should not be allowed to spread to other regions – such as Ukraine. While it is important to figure out whether it was Georgia or Russia which initiated the conflict, it is essential that a ceasefire remains in effect. The Minister is in favor of a dialogue between Georgia, Russia, and the West to find a solution to the conflict. At the same time, he said he would base his future foreign policy on facts and national interests and not (as has sometimes been suggested) on news reports. Russia is in Europe’s neighborhood and cannot be ignored. Although Germany is diversifying its energy sources, as the United States does, and although it is looking for sources of renewable energy, it does rely on Russian oil and gas for part of its energy.
In closing, Minister Steinmeier said that it is important to renew the transatlantic agenda and to move beyond the foreign and security policy issues raised in important fora like the Munich Security Conference, because the security issues of the future include energy, the environment, climate change, and disarmament. The emerging powers of China and India as well as the global marketplace will create challenges for Europe and the United States alike. All of these issues need to be part of a new transatlantic agenda in order to ensure continued security and stability.
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